Amazon Earnings Preview
Amazon reports earnings following the near of the industry these days. We’ll be pursuing the earnings live at four PM EST here.
The Bottom Line: Despite risks tied for the company’s exposure to physical media like books and console games (consumers are migrating to increasingly competitive digital formats), Amazon remains the greatest and strongest e-commerce franchise on the web and its third-party organization continues to outpace rivals like eBay.
The company has a robust, impressive administration team that is transitioning the company to digital formats (like the Kindle and Amazon MP3) while maintaining its core e-commerce foothold.
The Street is looking for about 30% same-store Q1 revenue growth, a modest deceleration in the 34% during Q4 ‘09, which was driven by a strong holiday season. Calls to industry executives during the quarter and yesterday’s in-line eBay final results give us confidence the company will satisfy expectations. If management gives conservative guidance for your remainder with the 12 months like eBay did, the costly AMZN shares could take a hit.
Background: The AMZN shares have modestly underperformed the S&P and NASDAQ this year, but trade at a pretty rich 23 times 2010 EV/EBITDA. As a result, there is little room for missteps when the company reports earnings this evening. We don’t expect the company will miss earnings, but eBay’s conservative outlook does leave open the possibility that Amazon could do the same, potentially impacting the stock negatively.
Key Consensus Estimates:
- Revenue: $6.9 Billion.
- Operating Income: $466 Million.
- GAAP EPS: $0.61.
- Key Items To Watch Out For: Kindle, third-party sales, update on Zappos, digital media sales, web services.
Here is an excellent snapshot from Citi analyst Mark Mahaney: (click to enlarge):
taken from:
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